Germantown, MD Market Report – 7/20/10

We have just over a four month supply of houses to choose from based on the rate of sales in June. (517 divided by 128). Economists say that a six month supply is normal to have a balanced market. After the tax credit I expect sales activity will fall for a few months since the market “borrowed sales from the future.” This is similar to what happened in the car business after “cash for Clunkers.” Below are the statistics and analysis for the Germantown, MD market:

• Homes for sale: 517 (down just a smidge from 525 in May. Up from 491 one year ago)
• Homes sold: 128 (up from 113 in May and up from 110 one year ago)
• Average sales price: $281,345 (down from $291,860 in May 2010 and about the same $283,791 one year ago)
• Average days on market: 40 (up a bit from 33 last month, but still way under 93 days a year ago)

The increase in the “Trade Up” market, where existing homeowners have equity and want to buy a more expensive house is beginning and will also pull process up as more higher priced sales pulls up all of the averages.
South Germantown Recreational Park is a 736-acre park that includes hiking trails, picnic facilities, baseball and softball fields, a playground, archery range, golf driving range, two miniature golf courses, a splash playground, model boating lake, a tot lot, and an indoor aquatic center.  The Germantown Park is the newest to be added in Montgomery County, Maryland.   The Maryland SoccerPlex is used by teams throughout the area and includes 24 outdoor soccer fields.

Market data and commentary provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President and Managing Broker.

Search for homes in Germantown, and all of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Ashburn, VA Market Report – 7/19/10

Supply and demand are both growing in Ashburn, reflecting a growing economy and increased consumer confidence. According to the statistics, we have a balanced market with just under a four month supply. The conventional wisdom is that a balanced market has a six month supply. So the current direction on prices is still indicating up.

• Homes for sale: 511 (up from 497 in May  and up from 433 one year ago)
• Homes sold: 133 (about the same as May’s 131 and up from 123 in May 2009)
• Average sold price: $441,119 (down a bit from last month at $451,953 and about the same as $440,838 in May one year ago)
• Average days on market: 27 (the same as in May, but way down from 62 one year ago)

27 days on the market! A few years ago a 27 day average would have prices rising two percent or more per month. While fundamentals never change, there are times in every kind of market when things just get a bit out of whack. It happened in 2003-2006 when prices got bid to very high levels. While the statistics reflect a stable market, which is based on a comparison of month to month and one year ago, if we look back 18 months, we can see how far prices have come from their bottom in December 2008.

But c’mon, 27 days on the market?! When market times get that low and inventory is under four months, it is safe to forecast big price jumps. So that is my forecast.

Market report provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President, Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for Homes in Ashburn, VA: www.averyhess.com

Caroline County, VA Market Report – 7/16/10

Boy are we living in interesting times!  Our market has been all over the place this year!  We started off the year with snowy weekends which then moved on to the February blizzard!  We then experienced the frenzy of activity from Buyers qualifying for the tax credit.  Then May 1st came around and the market came to a screeching halt.  June was a welcome change and we started to have more of a normal activity level.  Looking at the activity over the past year, things for the most part remain relatively unchanged.   Here is a snapshot:

The most noticeable change is the drop in new listings.  Inventory has declined all across the Fredericksburg region.  When inventory decreases so does the average days on market for homes that are listed on the MLS.  We will need to see a continued reduction in inventory before our market starts evening out.  While we still have a long road ahead of us, the decrease in inventory makes this market a little bit better for Sellers.  Sellers that are priced right, show well and are in good locations are selling their houses for close to their list prices and quicker than in seasons past.

Market data and commentary by Amy Cherry Taylor, Business Manager and Realtor at Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for homes in Caroline, and the all of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Gaithersburg, MD Market Report 7/14/10

Talk about a See-Saw, the statistics for Gaithersburg could really confuse even a Real Estate Veteran. Fortunately, there is more to a market than statistics. So let’s jump into the stats first and then we will do some analysis. Below you’ll find statistics as well as analysis for Gaithersburg, Maryland.

• Homes for sale: 878 (close to last month’s 867,  but down from 902 in April and down from 939 one year  ago)
• Homes Sold: 214 (very close to May’s 214, April’s  211 and 207 sales one year ago)
• Average sold price: $345,753 (down from $345,753  in May, similar to $330,231 in April and down from $363,547 one year  ago)
• Average days on market: 46 (close to 43 days  in May, 48 in April and 102 days from one year ago)

Inventory is pretty stable to falling, number of sales per month is pretty stable and the time it takes to sell is falling. So is the market getting stronger or weaker? A year ago on average it was taking over 100 days to sell a house. In 2010 it takes just a little over a month. We are selling about the same number of units each month for the last year. So why the big swings in price? It is very much a function of the mix of what sells. If we sell more expensive homes it pulls the average up. If we sell a greater number of lower priced units it pulls the stats down.

The lower priced properties are selling like hot cakes. The trade up market while stronger than one year ago seems to ebb and flow and that affects the stats. The drop in days on market says that the demand is real as buyers choose faster and faster.

With summer comes fairs and carnivals and although Gaithersburg has developed into a large metropolitan area with upscale restaurants and stores, there is still a little bit of country as evidenced by the Montgomery County Agricultural Fair held at the fairgrounds in Gaithersburg every August.  Live animals compete for prizes along with fruits, vegetables, homemade baked goods and crafts.  Those along with the tractor pulls, the huge truck contests, musical entertainment, good food and the carnival rides draw huge crowds each year. This is an event you don’t want to miss!

Data, analysis, and commentary provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President.

Find your in Gaithersburg and all of Montgomery County: www.averyhess.com

Bristow, VA Market Report – 7/13/10

Bristow still has just a five-month supply of homes for sale, and economists consider six-months worth of housing inventory a balanced market.  This low level of inventory keeps pressure on prices in an upward direction. Bristow is so stable of a market that the wording in the market commentary written below has not changed much in the past six months.

Below you’ll find a report of the previous month’s housing market in Bristow, Virginia:

• Homes for sale: 173  (up from 163 in May, 157 in April, but under the 192 of one year ago)
• Homes sold: 36  (stable as compared to 34 one year ago)
• Average sold price:  $331,155 (compared to $326,198 in May, 331,155 in April, and way up from  $313,655 from one year ago)
• Average days on market: 28 (compared to 29 in May, 56 in April and down from 43 days one year  ago)

Bristow’s prices bottomed out around December 2008, moved up steadily during 2009 and have stabilized in the first six months of 2010. At under $350,000 and selling in about a month, houses in Bristow continue to offer good value for buyers which is why the number of transactions have been so stable. Bristow remains an affordable and in-demand place to live. With interest rates remaining in the high 4% to low 5% range, affordability is very high. Thus Bristow has a robust real estate market.

Market data and commentary provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President and Managing Broker.

Search for homes in Bristow, and all of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Rockville, Maryland Market Report – 7/9/10

While the statistics show increasing strength in the market, which is correct, the rapid gain in price may be more a function of the “trade up market” than the numbers reveal. What is the Trade Up Market? This is when an existing homeowner sells their house and buys a more expensive property. The result is that there are more sales in the higher price ranges which has the effect of pulling up the averages. While this is good and is a sign of strength, when it first starts, as is now happening, it creates a statistical surge.

Market Statistics for Rockville, Maryland

• # of Homes for Sale: 525 (down from 599 in May, 537 in April and down from 586 at the same time  last year)
• # of Homes Sold: 151  (up from 128 in May, 96 in April, and up from 111 at same time last  year)
• Average Home Price:  $407,377 (up from $375,747 in May, $336,663 in April and up from $389,344 one  year ago)
• Average days on the market: 53 (up from 40 in May, but down from 62 in April, down  from 92 one year ago). Continued reduction in time on market shows  increasing demand.

The home buyer tax credits probably had the effect of shifting some demand forward, similar to what the “Cash for Clunkers” did to car sales. So I am expecting a bit of a reduced volume of transactions until September when we get back to “normal.”

A little about Rockville: Richard Montgomery High School is a premier magnet county high school which draws students from all over the county.  Montgomery College, Johns Hopkins University and the University of Maryland at Shady Grove all have campuses in Rockville.

Data, commentary and analysis provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President, Avery-Hess, Realtors

Find Your Home. Plan Your Life. www.averyhess.com