Springfield, VA Market Report – 9/1/10

If we put 10 economists in a room to discuss the current real estate climate and the forecast for the future, we would likely hear 10 different opinions.  And if we believe everything we read and hear from the media to be true, we might wonder why we even get out of bed in the morning. Certainly the economy is still suffering and we are living in difficult times, but there is always a bright side, a silver lining to rely on.

Springfield is a microcosim of typical America and while there are an abundance of distressed properties, there is also hope for the future outlook of this area. The dog days of summer couldn’t have been more evident this year as we suffered through record numbers of 90 degree + temperatures but the intrepid souls in search of opportunity found what they were looking  for .

While the number of homes that went to settlement in August was down by 40% from last August, the number of properties that went under contract last month was up by 65% over the previous year. The issue is not the lack of inventory. There were 22% more homes available in August than in August of 2009.

Of all the homes available and under contract, nearly 1 in 3 are foreclosures or short sales.  This reflects a sad but real situation; banks are selling more homes than builders.  Homeowners opting to rent rather than sell found a lot of competition in August, but there seems to be an abundance of folks preferring to or only able to enter into a lease situation. There were 103 properties of individual owners for rent in August. By the end of the month, 61 had rented and another 14 had applications registered.

There are people in the Springfield marketplace buying and selling property. Many owners are waiting for the prices to go back up and many buyers are waiting to see if they’ll keep falling. Hopefully, with wise counsel, they won’t miss out on opportunity when it is standing right in front of them.

Market data and commentary by Charles J. Carroll, Managing Broker at Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for homes in the Springfield, and the rest of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Centreville, VA Market Report 8/20/10

The following statistics reflect the real estate market in Centreville, Virginia:

• Homes for sale: 356 (down from 381 in June, and down from 394 at same time last year.)
• Homes Sold: 79 (down from 101 in June and down from 94 one year ago.)
• Average sold price: $367,332 (another jump up from $338,208 last month and WAY UP from $314,426 at the same time last year.)
• Average days on market: 33 (very stable over past six months, but down from 50 days one year ago)

For close to a year, I have been saying that prices in Centreville were continuing to move up after prices bottomed out in December 2008. The increase in confidence paired with amazingly low interest rates fueled a growing trade up market where existing homeowners with equity started selling their house to buy a bigger one. This has helped pull up the average sales price.Even with only a four and a half month supply of houses, I expect the second half of this year to have fewer transactions than the first half because the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit distorted the market.  Markets always swing back to equilibrium if given time and lack of government interference, so I expect that to happen again. The lower price ranges are still hot as a firecracker.

Market data, commentary and statistics provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President.

Search for homes in Centreville, and all of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Centreville, VA Market Report 5/21/10

Centreville is HOT! Steadily rising prices and increasing demand and supply over the past few months means that Good Times are ahead. Plus with great shopping, entertainment and dining options what’s not to like about Centreville?

The following statistics reflect the real estate market in Centreville, Virginia:

• Homes for sale: 435 (up from 401 last month, and up slightly from 424 at same time last year.)
• Homes Sold: 110 (up from 89 in March and February’s snowy 44 units. Up from 83 one year ago.)
• Average sold price: $337,492 (big jump up from $297,079 last month and WAY UP from $298,761 at the same time last year.)
• Average days on market: 21 (down from 34 last month and even more so from 74 days one year ago)

As we have said month after month, prices in Centreville are moving up and have been for the past 17 months. Over the past several months the market is no longer dominated by only First Time Buyers and Investors. We now have existing homeowners trading up to buy a bigger house.

With prices in Centreville rising and inventory also rising, we should see some stability in pricing soon as the supply rises to met the demand.. This is good for all parties!

Market data, commentary and statistics provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President.

Search for homes in Centreville, and all of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Springfield, VA Market Report – 5/3/10

People always wonder if we are in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.  You’ll hear some say it’s a buyer’s and some say it’s a seller’s market.  You can argue either point based on guess work, but there is a specific way to determine the market conditions in your area. Absorption rate is a mathematical representation of the relationship between supply and demand.  Below are the market statistics for Springfield from March 2010.  We will use these numbers to get a snapshot of the Springfield market.

• Total Active Listings – 312
• Under Contract – 130
• Total Sold – 85
• Avery Sales Price – $377,773
• List to Sell Ratio – 98.03%

These numbers show an improvement in several areas over the same period last year.  The number of units sold was not changed significantly but the average sold price increased by $45,000.  The days on market decreased from 91 to 34 and sellers were getting 98% of their asking price up from 91% last year.  So it appears that things are looking up.  But are we in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?  To determine that, lets look at the absorption rate.  Here’s how it works.  We determine the total number of active & pending listings (442), and the total sold last month (85).

85 x 12 (months) = 1020

1020 / 52 (weeks) = 19.62 (units sold per week)

If 19.62 units sell each week, divide that number into the number of active listings.

442 / 19.62 = 22.53 weeks or 5.63 months (Absorption Rate)

The absorption rate means that it would take 5.63 months to sell all the inventory.  Absorption Rate is not an exact science.  One month does not determine what the market is, there needs to be a trend of perhaps 3 or 4 months.

When the rate is 1-4 months it is considered a seller’s market.  Buyer’s market conditions exist when its 7+ months.  Between 5-7 months “normal market” conditions exist.  It’s not quite a trend yet, but Springfield is experiencing normal market conditions.

Market data and commentary by Charles J. Carroll, Managing Broker at Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for homes in the Springfield, and the rest of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Centreville, VA Market Report 4/16/10

Centreville has housing styles to fit every lifestyle and every budget. Plus with great shopping, entertainment and dining options what’s not to like?

The following statistics reflect the real estate market in Centreville, Virginia:

• Homes for sale: 401 ( up from 336 last month, down slightly from 442 at same time last year)
• Closed sales: 89 (more than double February’s snowy 44 units)
• Average sold price: $297,079 (up from $287,280 last month,  and WAY UP from $261,306 in March 2009)
• Average days on market: 34 (down from 47 last month and even more so from 82 days one year ago)

So with these kinds of numbers, is there any doubt about what is going in with Residential Real estate in Centreville? As I have said in previous posts, those who bought over the past 15 months have been rewarded with increasing equity, both from rising house values and the reduction in their mortgage loan from making payments each month.

Prices in Centreville are rising and there is a trend toward declining inventory from which to select. As this trend continues, home prices will continue to rise as a result. In fact as this trend continues, the upward pressure on prices will be just that, Pressure!

Market data, commentary and statistics provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President.

Search for homes in Centreville, and all of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Centreville, VA Market Report – 3/10/10

Centreville is located in Fairfax County, one of the largest counties in the Commonwealth of Virginia. From Centreville, it’s only a one hour drive to the mountains and three hours to the beach. With reasonably priced houses and a great lifestyle, what’s not to like?

The following statistics reflect the real estate market in Centreville, Virginia:

• Homes for sale: 312 ( up from 288 last month, down from 402 at same time last year)
• Closed sales: 58 (down from 90 in December)
• Average sold price: $293,369 (down from $304,655 in December, but up from $272,000 in January 2009)
• Average days on market: 41 (up from 36 in December)

Comparing each month to the previous month’s results has been like driving on a country road: small ups and downs, but the trend is unmistakable, prices are going up again. All the great fears and media reports about how the shadow inventory of foreclosures was going to cause a depression have so far been a bunch of hype. The real winners have been the buyers who have braved the media reports and jumped in and bought a house. With or without a tax credit, these folks are already looking very smart for taking action.

Prices in Centreville are rising and there is a trend toward declining inventory from which to select. As this trend continues, home prices should continue to rise as a result.

Market data, commentary and statistics provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President and Managing Broker.

Search for homes in Centreville, and all of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com