Springfield, VA Market Report – 12/20/10

Although home sales have begun to exceed new inventory for several weeks, because of the excess inventory prices have not yet stopped declining. Should the sales trend continue we can expect prices to level off soon and begin to climb back up.  Most areas of Springfield have seen increased activity. Here is a snapshot of the November activity:

New Listings                               61

Active Listings                            179

Under contract                           128

Sold in November                       53

Average Sold Price                     $358.244

Average DOM                             72

Prices in this market continue to be on a downward trend indicating a strong buyer’s market. However as sales increase and inventory declines watch prices as the market transitions.

Market data and commentary by Charles J. Carroll, Managing Broker at Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for homes in the Springfield, and the rest of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Bristow, VA Market Report – 11/22/10

Bristow’s current housing supply is now a little OVER a four month supply after being right at four months for a long time. Is this a change in the trend or just the time of year? Only time will tell. Remember that economists say a six-month inventory indicates a balanced market.  This low level of inventory continues to keep an upward pressure on prices in the area. While Bristow’s prices have been rising slower during 2010 after a rapid rise starting in December 2008, the days on market has been getting a little longer as shown below.

Here are the statistics for the housing market in Bristow, Virginia:

• Homes for sale: 141  (compare to 150 in September and 155 one year ago)
• Homes sold: 31 (stable as compared to 32 in September and 48 one year ago)
• Average sold price:  $345,848 (compared to $342,968 in September and $315,179 one year ago)
• Average days on market: 50 (compare to 59 in September and 28 days one year ago)

We are now six months past the expiration of homebuyer tax credits and we are in the midst of a lot of negative media attention about issues relating to foreclosures. Yet people are still buying homes. Folks want to have a say in the place that they live. For those who are not worried about their job, which is about 88% of the population around here, now would be a good time to take advantage of the low interest rates as they are showing signs of going up soon.

Market data and commentary provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President and Managing Broker.

Search for homes in Bristow, and all of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Arlington County Market Report – 9/17/10

Arlington continues to be a favorite location for many reasons. There are so many varied neighborhoods to be found throughout the county. The more established, higher priced neighborhoods are in North Arlington. These communities have easy access to the downtown areas of McLean and Great Falls and are just a short drive across Chain Bridge to Upper Northwest D.C.  South Arlington offers more affordable homes and is convenient to Crystal City and Old Town Alexandria. The Wilson Blvd. corridor from Rosslyn to Ballston is filled with high rise and garden Condo’s, more older, established neighborhoods , and trendy restaurants and shops.

The dog days of summer kept the real estate market relatively stable in August. The significant statistics were literally unchanged from August of 2009, and showed a slight decrease from the previous month. The total number of units sold was exactly the same as in July. The days on market increased by a few days , and the average sold price decreased slightly.  The market seems to have paused at this average price level and the Market Action Index shows that conditions currently favor buyers. Both prices and inventory levels are unchanged in recent weeks.   Buyers seem to have taken another wait and see attitude. Despite historically low interests rates and stable or decreasing prices, there has not been an urgency to enter into the fray.  The government reported recently that 1 in 7 Americans are living near the poverty level. Fear of loss of jobs has stopped otherwise ready buyers from moving forward. I suspect that until after the November elections there will not be much activity.

These are the days that in 5 or 10 years we will look back and say we wished we had bought when the prices and interest rates were so low.  Despite all the gloom in the forecast, owning your home is still the wisest long term investment you can make.

Commentary and analysis provided by Charlie Carroll, Managing Broker, Avery-Hess, Realtors

Find Your Home. Plan Your Life. www.averyhess.com

Springfield, VA Market Report – 9/1/10

If we put 10 economists in a room to discuss the current real estate climate and the forecast for the future, we would likely hear 10 different opinions.  And if we believe everything we read and hear from the media to be true, we might wonder why we even get out of bed in the morning. Certainly the economy is still suffering and we are living in difficult times, but there is always a bright side, a silver lining to rely on.

Springfield is a microcosim of typical America and while there are an abundance of distressed properties, there is also hope for the future outlook of this area. The dog days of summer couldn’t have been more evident this year as we suffered through record numbers of 90 degree + temperatures but the intrepid souls in search of opportunity found what they were looking  for .

While the number of homes that went to settlement in August was down by 40% from last August, the number of properties that went under contract last month was up by 65% over the previous year. The issue is not the lack of inventory. There were 22% more homes available in August than in August of 2009.

Of all the homes available and under contract, nearly 1 in 3 are foreclosures or short sales.  This reflects a sad but real situation; banks are selling more homes than builders.  Homeowners opting to rent rather than sell found a lot of competition in August, but there seems to be an abundance of folks preferring to or only able to enter into a lease situation. There were 103 properties of individual owners for rent in August. By the end of the month, 61 had rented and another 14 had applications registered.

There are people in the Springfield marketplace buying and selling property. Many owners are waiting for the prices to go back up and many buyers are waiting to see if they’ll keep falling. Hopefully, with wise counsel, they won’t miss out on opportunity when it is standing right in front of them.

Market data and commentary by Charles J. Carroll, Managing Broker at Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for homes in the Springfield, and the rest of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Bristow, VA Market Report – 8/26/10

Bristow’s current housing supply is down to four month’s worth of inventory. Typically economists say that a six-month inventory indicates a balanced market.  This low level of inventory is keeping upward pressure on prices in the area. However, overall Bristow has been a very stable market during 2010 after a rapid rise starting in December 2008.

Below you’ll find a report of the previous month’s housing market in Bristow, Virginia:

• Homes for sale: 172  (compare to 173 in June and 202 one year ago)
• Homes sold: 43 (stable as compared to 36 last month and 50 one year ago)
• Average sold price:  $333,981 (compared to $337,901 in June and $298,935 one year ago)
• Average days on market: 27 (compared to 34 in June and 35 days one year  ago)

Everyone is still waiting to see what the housing market will do now that the two years of government stimulation has ended. My prediction for the market is that we will soon be seeing stable prices. People are buying real estate to live in, not to speculate on. This is healthy for everyone.

Market data and commentary provided by David Hess, Executive Vice President and Managing Broker.

Search for homes in Bristow, and all of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Springfield, VA Market Report – 5/3/10

People always wonder if we are in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market.  You’ll hear some say it’s a buyer’s and some say it’s a seller’s market.  You can argue either point based on guess work, but there is a specific way to determine the market conditions in your area. Absorption rate is a mathematical representation of the relationship between supply and demand.  Below are the market statistics for Springfield from March 2010.  We will use these numbers to get a snapshot of the Springfield market.

• Total Active Listings – 312
• Under Contract – 130
• Total Sold – 85
• Avery Sales Price – $377,773
• List to Sell Ratio – 98.03%

These numbers show an improvement in several areas over the same period last year.  The number of units sold was not changed significantly but the average sold price increased by $45,000.  The days on market decreased from 91 to 34 and sellers were getting 98% of their asking price up from 91% last year.  So it appears that things are looking up.  But are we in a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?  To determine that, lets look at the absorption rate.  Here’s how it works.  We determine the total number of active & pending listings (442), and the total sold last month (85).

85 x 12 (months) = 1020

1020 / 52 (weeks) = 19.62 (units sold per week)

If 19.62 units sell each week, divide that number into the number of active listings.

442 / 19.62 = 22.53 weeks or 5.63 months (Absorption Rate)

The absorption rate means that it would take 5.63 months to sell all the inventory.  Absorption Rate is not an exact science.  One month does not determine what the market is, there needs to be a trend of perhaps 3 or 4 months.

When the rate is 1-4 months it is considered a seller’s market.  Buyer’s market conditions exist when its 7+ months.  Between 5-7 months “normal market” conditions exist.  It’s not quite a trend yet, but Springfield is experiencing normal market conditions.

Market data and commentary by Charles J. Carroll, Managing Broker at Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for homes in the Springfield, and the rest of the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com