Warren County/Front Royal Market Report – 10/13/09

Two very interesting things are happening in the Warren County and Front Royal housing market.  The first is that inventory is getting tighter and  both closed and pending sales are increasing.  The second interesting fact is that properties are staying on the market longer, causing prices to to fall.  Typically, you would not find both instances occurring.  As supply decreases and sales continue to increase, prices would normally rise and days on the market (DOM) would decline.  However, the opposite is happening.  The main reason is this is not a normal market–so buyers are not dealing with traditional sellers.  An added factor is that banks and asset managers are thrown into the recipe by the way of short sales and REO properties on the market. Secondly, the government has gotten involved.  There are now required approaches to keep the defaulting borrower in the property and prolonging eventual foreclosure, which would add to inventory. The following statistics were reported in Warren County for the month of September 2009.

• New listings: 87
• Closed sales: 48
• Average sale price: $161,900
• Average DOM: 125
• Total inventory: 456 units

The number of new listings last month are down by more than 12% from September 2008.  While closed sales and pending sales increased by 33% and 31.4% respectively, the average sale price declined by almost 16%.  Also, the percentage of original list price received at sale only fell by about 2% from last September.

Comparing last year’s totals to this year’s, new listings have dropped 13.7%.  Closed sales have increased by over 29%, and pending sales have also increased, by 44%.  The average sale price in Warren County year to date has dropped almost 27% to a mere $153,000.

The short sale process is lengthy and the cause for increases in pending sales.  The low volume of new listings is due to the try and modify approach before listing as an REO.  Take these factors out and prices would fall, inventory would increase, and buyers would began to gobble up the inventory.  Eventually price levels would hit equilibrium and continue on like business as usual.  But with current trends, this scenario is not so certain. My recommendation is if you want or need to sell, now is the time to do it.  When interest rates go up and prices will fall,  which will be when all of these limbo foreclosures will hit the market–further dropping prices.  I predict another 15% drop in Warren County, but you would be better in the long run buying now and locking into a lower rate than waiting for the price drop and more than offsetting the cost with a higher interest rate–especially if you plan on living in the house for more than five years.

Market data and commentary provided by Steve Mayes, Managing Broker, Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for Homes in Warren County, and all the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Warren County, VA Market Report – 9/22/09

The following totals represent the Warren County, Virginia market as of August 2009:

• New Listings: 110
• Closed Sales: 36
• Pending Sales: 57
• Median Sales Price: $141,500
• Average DOM: 123

Located west of the District of Columbia, Warren County has seen the year to date days on the market (DOM) increase from 145 to 169 days.  Compared to August 2008, DOM has been reduced 11.8% from 139 to 123 days in August 2009. For the month, median sales price experienced a decline to $141,500, while the year to date average sale price stands at $153,000.

The county had 449 total units for sale in August of 20009 versus 589 in August of 2008. Inventory is increasing and prices seem to be slowly creeping down. This opens the door for a great investment opportunity. Rents are holding steady and therefore cash flow is available when you buy and rent. As prices drop, so does the percentage of sale price versus listing price, meaning further discounts. Year to date, listings are selling for 87.4% of their list price–down 2.4% from the same time in 2008. Warren County is a great place to take advantage of buying low. With its close proximity to Washington, DC, prices are sure to rise again.

Market data and commentary provided by Steve Mayes, Managing Broker, Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for Homes in Warren County, and all the DC Metro: www.averyhess.com

Warren County/Front Royal Market Report – 8/31/09

Here is a quick snapshot of the market wrap-up for Warren County/Front Royal:

This market follows closely to the Prince William and Manassas City market, however average prices are less.

• 115 New Listings
• 42 Sales
• $181,250 Avg sale price
• 174 Days on Market 

Little has changed between July 2008 and July 2009. Overall, 2008 to 2009 inventory has dropped 16% and there has been a 30% increase in sales The year to date average sale price is $153,000. There are 440 single family homes, town homes and condos on the market as of end of July data. 

Unless a large influx of inventory floods the market, this area may have seen the bottom of prices. Unemployment has seemed to peak and things are stabilizing. Front Royal makes a great place to buy to avoid the multiple offers and hard to find a home for sale, even with inventory being less than Prince William County. There are fewer buyers to compete with. Taxes are less than Prince William and cost of living including real estate are less than Prince William County, thus offsetting the commuting costs.

Homes in Warren county offer uniqueness. Older homes with great character acan be purchased at a fraction of the cost of old town Manassas and Warrenton. New homes tend to have more land and great views. The views can be trees, mountains, rolling hills and the Shenandoah river. I think prices will hold steady until more people realize this hidden gem.

Warren County/Front Royal Market Report compiled by Steve Mayes, Managing Broker, Avery-Hess, Realtors.

Search for homes in Warren County and Front Royal: www.averyhess.com

Make a Move- To the Shenandoah Valley!

Warren County was the place to move to in 2005. Affordability was the main reason. Home buyers came to Front Royal and bought their dream home for the price of a small condo in Northern Virginia. It was too good to be true, right? Minutes from I66. Close proximity to all the best wineries. Gorgeous mountain views, every where you turn. After the gas prices began to rise and property values dropped, all this sudden it wasn’t so great. The wonderful affordable homes declining in value offered no relief from the rising cost of gas. Many buyers once considering buying the serene mountain retreats in the Shenandoah Valley disappeared- over night. Now that gas prices are down and home sales are looking up in Warren County, hope is restored! So why wait- make a move now!

Warren County is back. Front Royal is no longer “that little tourist town with cheap houses and no shopping”. The 2006 cencus confirmed that the population in Warren County was 36,102. The town officials have worked hard to bring in businesses who are providing convenient shopping opportunities to the residence. The citizens of this growing town are chirping with contentment to be able to shop at Lowes, Target, Walmart, and  the money for taxes going back into the community and schools their children and grand children attend. There are two very large brand new shopping center with every store imaginable. Plans are in the works for another shopping center.

Did you know that Front Royal is the Canoe Capital of Virginia. It’s the place where the Skyline Drive begins.  There is a flow of tourists through front royal, but who could blame them? I’d come here all the time if I had to live somewhere else. The Shenandoah River promises weekends of fishing and fun. Skyline Caverns are one of the most magnificient attractions in the Shenandoah Valley. Walk down historic Main Street. Charming shops and Mom and Pops restaurants line the streets. Classic Americana at it’s best!

Many of the new residents of Front Royal come from other areas. To answer a question I am constantly being asked- Yes, the Warren County Public School system is excellent.  The High Schools are educating the youth of this community to adapt to life beyond high school. The students are receiving career training and technical education through work study programs that have been implemented. Career programs are in place at each of the brand new high schools which are both fully accredited. Local businesses within the community offer scholarships to the graduating students. Front Royal offers private education as well, with 7 private schools facilitating the area. One of the country’s most prestigious schools, Randolph Macon Academy is right here in Front Royal. Students attending this prestigious school are from all over the country- some are from other countries. Can you imagine having a learning facility like this available to your children, within minutes from your home? The parents in Warren County receive this option of convenience.

Homes sales in Warren County are on the rise. In February of 2008 there were 22 units sold. This past February, 2009, MRIS reports that there have been 25 home sales. This is a step back into the right direction for the Real Estate market in Warren County. After all, there were 28 sales in 2007- that’s only 3 more than 2009 and 6 more than 2008. Sales are slowly rising again! Warren County is the place to be and I’m excited I’m here. If you were waiting for the bottom of the market- you may just have missed it. We have relocation packages available. Please email your address [bethbarnett@mris.com] if you would like a FREE information package delivered to you.

If you are looking to get away from the city for a fun day in Front Royal on Main street- attend the Annual Virginia Wine & Craft Festival on May 16. Remember to stop by the Avery-Hess Booth and tell us how much you love the Shenandoah Valley!

For a walking tour of Front Royal or more information on the Shenandoah Valley, contact Beth Barnett with Avery-Hess, Realtors at 540-533-4793 or bethbarnett@mris.com. You can also search for information on-line at  www.barnett-homes.com